KATO WEEKLY REPORT

Report Archives

2009 Archives

December 21, 2009

TA trip to Jakarta & BOJ's message

  1. My business trip to Jakarta, Indonesia
  2. The BOJ’s intention to intensify the market’s expectation on protracted ultra-low interest rates

December 14, 2009

TStarting the new funds-supplying operation

  1. Starting the new funds-supplying operation, the BOJ clearly showed its intention to lower the term interest rates
  2. Is the correlation between the current account balance at the BOJ and the spot yen rate high ?
  3. Possible additional pressure to the BOJ

December 7, 2009

TIt's a QE in a broad sense

  1. Tourist spots are thronged with people thanks to the reduction of expressway tolls
  2. Governor Shirakawa said, “It is a quantitative easing in a broad sense.”
  3. The BOJ is not committed to any level of the current account balance
  4. Possibility of contribution to reduce the cost of the government finance
  5. The reasons for deflation and the intervention for weaker yen

November 2, 2009

T0.1 % will be maintained for a long time

  1. The Outlook Report of the BOJ suggesting that its policy rate will be maintained at 0.1 % for a long time
  2. Governor Shirakawa promised to provide ample funds while part of temporary measures were terminated
  3. How to raise the inflation rate in Japan in a short period ?

October 26, 2009

TLikely objections to the reforms & Cafe "Mountain"

  1. Likely objections to the reforms and fiscal deficit
  2. The economy of Nagoya severely affected by the business performances of Toyota Group
  3. Strange food culture of Nagoya: Sweet melon pasta at Cafe “Mountain”

October 19, 2009

TThe BOJ tried to define the exit policy

  1. The budget scale for the next fiscal year will be ¥ 92 trillion ?
  2. Governor Shirakawa emphasized the difference between partial termination of the temporary measures and exit policy
  3. Will the huge excess reserves produce any quantitative-easing effect ?

October 5, 2009

TThe BOJ policy after the Tankan survey

  1. An outlook for the Monetary Policy Meeting in October after the release of the September Tankan survey
  2. The fate of extraordinary measures of the BOJ
  3. The high level of outstanding balance of current accounts at the BOJ at the end of September due to the ample supply of funds

September 29, 2009

TFeasibility of negative interest rate policy ?

  1. Feasibility of negative interest rate policy ?
  2. Extraordinary measures will be diminished cautiously

September 24, 2009

TBOJ became a little bit bullish

  1. The Policy Board of the BOJ became a little bit bullish about its economic assessment based on to the effect of economic growth in emerging economies
  2. Remarks of Finance Minister Fujii

September 7, 2009

TWill the new government carry out intervention?

  1. Will the DPJ government carry out intervention in the foreign exchange market ?
  2. Changes of administration and economic policy
  3. Governor Shirakawa of the BOJ was invited to meet President Hatoyama of the DPJ

August 31, 2009

T Influence of the New Administration on monetary policy

  1. The economic policy of the DPJ explained this morning by Mr. Otsuka, a member of the House of Councilors
  2. Influence of the new administration by the Democratic Party of Japan on monetary policy
  3. CPI:-2.2 %, Unemployment rate: 5.7 %

August 17, 2009

TSarcastic remarks made by Shirakawa to economists

  1. In spite of the return of a positive GDP growth, the BOJ appears to continue its vigilance against the downside risks
  2. Sarcastic remarks made by Governor Shirakawa to overseas economists who used to criticize the BOJ
  3. Expansion of the BOE’s asset purchases: Will the quantitative easing policy be effective to the UK economy ?

August 10, 2009

TRisk appetite in the future

  1. The report of BOJ’s staff forecasting the risk appetite in the future
  2. The Democratic Party of Japan’s attitude to monetary policy
  3. The stark contrast between former Governor Hayami of the BOJ and Chairman Bernanke of the Fed with respect to government bond purchasing operations

August 4, 2009

TSharp rises of stock prices & the BOJ Meeting

  1. Although the CPI registered -1.7 %, the BOJ judges that the risk of deflationary spiral is small
  2. Sharp rises of stock prices in emerging markets: Difficult handling of monetary policy in advanced countries
  3. The testimony of Mr. Posen surprised the executives of the BOJ
  4. The minutes of the BOJ’s Monetary Policy Meetings in the first half of 1999 abounding in suggestions to the present

July 27, 2009

TGeneral election & "eco-point"

  1. Mass media’s forecasts of a great victory by the Democratic Party of Japan
  2. Will the DPJ Administration refuse to buy the US government bonds ?
  3. The BOJ is vigilant against the downside risks after “eco-point”

July 20, 2009

TA dangerous TV commercial to Japanese husbands

  1. A TV commercial symbolizing severer competition for low prices among retailers
  2. Governor Shirakawa of the BOJ hinted cautiously a possibility of reviewing the “monster operations”

July 6, 2009

TBOJ's Tankan Survey

  1. The BOJ’s June Tankan Survey: only very slow recovery
  2. The 1-year funds supplying operation was appraised as “enormous success” by President Trichet of the ECB
  3. President Yellen denied concern for inflation and stressed that exit policy is far away
  4. The annual report of the BIS pointed out the difficulty in exit strategies

June 29, 2009

T100 trillion Zimbabwe dollar banknotes

  1. 100 trillion Zimbabwe dollar banknotes being sold at a secondhand currency shop in Tokyo
  2. The effects of the statement of June FOMC meeting on the BOJ

June 22, 2009

T"Monster operations" distorting the CP market

  1. “Monster operations” by the BOJ distorting the interest rate formation in the CP market
  2. The condition of the CP market has improved dramatically
  3. The BOJ wants it not to be misunderstood as “a start of exit strategy”
  4. “Mondustrial Policy” ?

June 15, 2009

TPre-commitment strategies to lower long-term rates

  1. The conference at the Kobe University, a splendid spa resort and “Rokko Beer”
  2. The FOMC meeting in June attracting attention of the market participants in Japan and the BOJ also
  3. The WSJ reported that the Fed is unlikely to expand its purchases of securities substantially
  4. Possibility of fortified pre-commitment strategies

June 8, 2009

TThe BOJ is still cautious

  1. Despite media’s reports that “the BOJ will revise upward its economic assessment for the second month in a row”, the BOJ is still cautious
  2. The amount cut in T-bill purchasing operations announced last week is not the first step of exit policy
  3. Special funds-supplying operations to facilitate corporate financing by the BOJ have pushed down interest rates on CP powerfully

May 26, 2009

TThe BOJ has not relaxed its vigilance

  1. Monetary Policy Meeting of the BOJ: It has not relaxed its vigilance
  2. The BOJ’s decision to accept bonds issued by the governments of the US, the UK, Germany, and France as eligible collateral
  3. “The influenza panic” happening in Japan

May 18, 2009

TFlow of funds into Chinese property markets

  1. Shanghai shows no pathetic note of “once-a-century crisis”
  2. Drastic increase in bank loans and declines in Shibor
  3. Flow of funds into property markets
  4. The wage level of bank employees in large cities in China is high
  5. The Chinese government intends to develop Shanghai as an international financial center

May 7, 2009

TMedium-term outlook of the BOJ

  1. The medium-term economic outlook of the BOJ
  2. What if “the risk of downward deviation in economic activity and prices” should materialize ?
  3. The balance of current accounts at the BOJ is continuing to increase
  4. The huge excess reserves and the exit strategy in the US

April 27, 2009

TThe BOJ is suspicious of the effect of JGBs purchasing operations

  1. The largest amount of new government bonds in the past will be issued by the Japanese government
  2. The stance to the fiscal expenditures of the Japanese government contrasts with that of the German government
  3. The BOJ putting a curb on long-term assets with worries about exit policy versus the Fed buying aggressively long-term assets
  4. The BOJ is suspicious of the effect of JGBs purchasing operations

April 20, 2009

TThe comparison between “The Sakura Report” and “The Beige Book”

  1. The comparison between “The Sakura Report” of the BOJ and “The Beige Book” of the Fed
  2. The average outstanding amounts of excess reserves by sector

April 13, 2009

TThe features of the BOJ's balance sheet

  1. The comparison of balance sheet scales among main central banks
  2. The features of the BOJ’s balance sheet as of end-March
  3. Tax payers’ burden will be increased by reinforcing the reserves of the BOJ

April 8, 2009

TPeople’s anger for the rescue plans by tax money

  1. It is essential to calm people’s anger in order to rescue the financial system by tax money
  2. Monetary Policy Meeting of the BOJ: the expansion of the range of eligible collateral, the economic forecast, the rule on government bond purchasing operations

March 30, 2009

TQuasi-Quantitative Easing by the BOJ

  1. The current account balance at the BOJ will exceed ¥ 22 trillion at the end of March
  2. The funding costs of large firms in Japan are relatively low in the world
  3. The interbank market is continuing to diminish due to continued substantial funds-supply by the BOJ

March 27, 2009

TSubordinated loans by the BOJ & A speech by Mr. Yamaguchi

  1. Provision of subordinated loans to major banks by the BOJ
  2. A speech by Deputy Governor Yamaguchi of the BOJ: risk of downside deviation in domestic private demand

March 10 , 2009

TGovernor Shirakawa at the Upper House

  1. At a Committee meeting of the Upper House, Governor Shirakawa emphasized the fact of government bond purchases
  2. The justification of increasing government bond issuance by a PT of the ruling party: “no burden on descendants” “ in no fiscal crisis”
  3. The official international reserves at the end of February: “Deposits” with foreign banks continue to decrease

March 2, 2009

TIs “the lost decade” of Japan “stupid” or “not so bad”?

  1. Is “the lost decade” of Japan “stupid” or “not so bad”?
  2. Operations to purchase ETFs ?
  3. The BOJ has intensified its funds-supply further
  4. Issuance interest rates on CP have declined considerably due to effects of policies by the authorities

February 23, 2009

TFocal points in the policy of the BOJ hereafter

  1. The current policy is not recognized as quantitative easing by Governor Shirakawa
  2. The BOJ intensified credit easing and liquidity support measures
  3. Why has the industrial production index of Japan deteriorated so drastically ?
  4. Focal points in the policy of the BOJ hereafter
  5. ECB President Trichet: “We should be proud of stability-oriented policies”

February 16, 2009

TCredit protections by the government will be necessary for the BOJ

  1. Credit protections by the government as in the US and the UK will be necessary if the BOJ should take substantial risks on private debts
  2. De facto quantitative easing has been intensified by the BOJ
  3. Is your gift on the Valentine Day chocolate or gold ?

February 9, 2009

TIssuance of the government paper money

  1. Issuance of the government paper money (fiat money) to stimulate domestic demand
  2. The BOJ decided to resume its purchases of stocks held by banks
  3. Explanations on policies for longer-term interest rates

February 2, 2009

TShocking decreases in the industrial production

  1. Shocking decreases in the industrial production
  2. A speech by Deputy Governor Nishimura of the BOJ
  3. An outlook for the monetary policy of the BOJ
  4. The gubernatorial election in Yamagata Prefecture and “dondoyaki”

January 27, 2009

TQuantitative easing has already been started ?

  1. Governor Shirakawa has adopted measures which are more unconventional than those taken by former Governor Fukui
  2. The CP purchase operations of the BOJ
  3. It can be said that quantitative easing has already been started: however, reserve targeting will not be adopted
  4. Utsunomiya City attracting tourists with gyoza (Chinese-style dumpling)

January 19, 2009

TThe aging society & the outlook for the BOJ new operation

  1. What will be the suitable stimulatory measures in the aging society?
  2. Significant downward revisions will be made in the BOJ’s economic outlook
  3. What will be the scheme of CP purchase operation by the BOJ like ?

January 13, 2009

T"Exceptional measures" by the BOJ

  1. The “Mondustrial Policy” by the BOJ in the past
  2. Will the BOJ and the Fed adopt inflation targeting ?
  3. An interview with Governor Shirakawa by NHK
  4. An outlook for the monetary policy by the BOJ in 2009
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